Selected Articles in Refereed Journals

Public Services Under Private Management (with Maíra Coube and Luiz Felipe Fontes).
Quarterly Journal of Economics, accepted.

Urgent Care Centers, Hospital Performance and Population Health (with Sonia Bhalotra and Letícia Nunes).
Journal of Public Economics, v.255(105573), March 2026 [link].

What Happens to Population Health When the Doctors Leave? Evidence from the Exit of Cuban Doctors in Brazil (with Stefan Sliwa Ruiz, Malte Becker and Tom Hone).
Journal of Health Economics, v.106(103099), March 2026 [link].

Economic Distress and Children’s Mental Health: Evidence from the Brazilian High Risk Cohort Study for Mental Conditions (with Luiz Fontes, Matías Mrejen and Beatriz Rache; and thankful to the Brazilian High Risk Cohort Study group).
The Economic Journal, v.134(660), pp. 1701–1718, May 2024 [link].

Down the River: Glyphosate Use in Agriculture and Birth Outcomes of Surrounding Populations (with Mateus Dias and Rodrigo R. Soares).
Review of Economic Studies, v.90(6), pp. 2943–2981, November 2023 [link].
Featured in BBC News Brasil.

Stop Suffering! Economic Downturns and Pentecostal Upsurge (with Francisco J. Costa and Angelo Marcantônio).
Journal of the European Economic Association, issue 21-1, February 2023 [link].
Featured (headline) in Folha de São Paulo.

Winds of Fire and Smoke: Air Pollution and Health in the Brazilian Amazon (with André Sant’Anna).
World Development, v.151 (105722), March 2022 [link].

American Delusion: Life Expectancy and Welfare in the US from an International Perspective (with Rodrigo Soares a Michel Szklo).
Journal of Human Capital, v.16, n.1, pp. 73-132, Spring 2022 [link].

The Effect of Socioeconomic Inequalities and Vulnerabilities on Health System Preparedness and Response to COVID-19 in Brazil: A Comprehensive Analysis (with Atun, Massuda, Rache, Spinola, Nunes, Lago and Castro).
The Lancet Global Health, v.9(6), pp.E782-E792, June 2021 [link].

Subsidizing Access to Prescription Drugs and Health Outcomes: The Case of Diabetes (with Pedro Américo).
Journal of Health Economics, v.72, July 2020 [link].

Does Credit Affect Deforestation? Evidence from a Rural Credit Policy in the Brazilian Amazon (with Juliano Assunção, Clarissa Gandour and Romero Rocha).
The Economic Journal, v.130 issue 626, pp. 290–330, February 2020 [link].
Featured in Valor Econômico, Op-ed in O Globo.

Brazilian Unified Health System: The First 30 Years and Prospects for the Future (with Castro, Massuda, Almeida, Menezes-Filho, Andrade, Noronha, Macinko, Hone, Tasca, Giovanella, Malik, Werneck, Fachini and Atun).
The Lancet, v.394(10195), pp. 345-356, July 2019 [link].

Do Lower Taxes Reduce Informality? Evidence from Brazil (with Gabriel Ulyssea and Laísa Rachter).
Journal of Development Economics, v.134, pp. 28-49, September 2018 [link].
Featured in Folha de São Paulo and Valor Econômico.

Human Capital Persistence and Development (with Claudio Ferraz and Rodrigo R. Soares).
American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, v.9 n.4, pp. 105-36, October 2017 [link]. 
First version available as BREAD Working Paper #454 and IZA Discussion Paper #9101. Featured in O Globo.

Drug Battles and School Achievement: Evidence from Rio de Janeiro’s Favelas (with Joana Monteiro).
Review of Economics and Statistics, v.99 n.2, pp. 213-228, May 2017 [link].
Featured in O Globo and Bom Dia Brasil.

Deforestation Slowdown in the Brazilian Amazon: Prices or Policies? (with Juliano Assunção and Clarissa Gandour).
Environment and Development Economics,  v.20 n.6, pp. 697-722, December 2015 [link].
Full Working Paper Version [link]. Valor Econômico Op-ed (22 March 2012). Featured in The Economist and Time Magazine.

Water Scarcity and Birth Outcomes in the Brazilian Semiarid (with Rodrigo R. Soares).
Journal of Development Economics, v.112, pp. 72-91, January 2015 [link].
First version available as IZA DP no. 6773.

Other Key Articles in Refereed Journals

Macroeconomic Fluctuations and the Prioritisation of Healthcare Finances by Local Governments: Longitudinal Evidence from 5,461 Brazilian Municipalities (with H. Arruda, K. Codazzi, T. Hone and M. Suhrcke).
Health Policy and Planning, forthcoming.

Building a Health System Resilience Framework: National, State, Regional, and Local Perspectives (with M. Paschoalotto, M. Castro, A. Massuda and E. Lazzari).
The Lancet Regional Health Americas, v.54(101334) February 2026. [link]

Patient and Medical Choice Across Public and Private Health Providers: The Case of Birth Timing Manipulation in Brazil (with Paula Spinola).
The European Journal of Health Economics, December 2025 [link].

Racial Inequalities in Access to Healthcare Services in Brazil (2019): A Decomposition Analysis (with T. Hone, R. Coelho, L. Falcão and M. Mrejen).
BMC Health Services Research, v.25(1573), December 2025 [link].

Cohort Profile: Brazilian High-Risk Cohort for Mental Health Conditions (BHRC) (with Salum, Pan and BHRC colleagues).
International Journal of Epidemiology, v.54, issue 6, December 2025 [link].

Hiring Mental Health Professionals: Evidence from a Large-Scale Primary Care Policy in Brazil (with Matías Mrejen).
Labour Economics, v.94, 102728, June 2025 [link].

Healthcare Utilisation Among Low-Income Individuals Affected by Violence in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil: A Retrospective Cohort Study (with Medeiros, Guerra, Peçanha, Medeiros, Millett and Hone).
BMC Public Health, v.25, n.3508, 2025 [link].

The effect of Deforestation on Covid-19 Transmission to Indigenous Peoples in Brazil: A Panel Fixed-Effects Analysis Before and After Vaccination (with H. Laudares, C. Batista, P. Gagliardi and N. Ray).
PLOS Global Health, April 29, 2025 [link].

More Doctors, Better Health? Consolidating Evidence from Brazil’s Mais Médicos Program.
Social Science & Medicine, v.364, 117559, January 2025 [link].

Transition Towards Cancer Mortality Predominance over Cardiovascular Disease Mortality in Brazil, 2000-2019: A Population-Based Study (with Rache, Rezende, Medeiros, Okada, Ferrari, Zeng, Bigoni, Curado, Azeredo).
The Lancet Regional Health Americas, v.39, 100904, November 2024 [link].

Improvements in Data Completeness in Health Information Systems Reveal Racial Inequalities: Longitudinal National Data from Hospital Admissions in Brazil 2010–2022 (with R. Coelho and T. Hone).
International Journal for Equity in Health, v.23(143) July 2024 [link].

Progress towards universal health coverage and inequalities in infant mortality: An analysis of 4.1 million births from 60 low- and middle-income countries between 2000-2019 (with Hone, Gonçalves, Seferidi, Moreno-Serra, Gupta, Bhardwaj, Hidayat, Cai, Suhrcke, Millett).
The Lancet Global Health, v.12(5), pages e744-e755, May 2024 [link].

Social Determinants of Health in Brazil during the COVID-19 Pandemic: Strengths and Limitations of Emergency Responses (with Paschoalotto, Lazzari, Massuda and Castro).
Health Affairs Scholar, v.1(issue 1), July 2023 [link].

Health Systems Resilience: Is It Time to Revisit Resilience After COVID-19? (with Paschoalotto, Lazzari, Massuda and Castro).
Social Science & Medicine, v.320, 115716, March 2023 [link].

Evolution and Inequalities in Depression Prevalence and the Treatment Gap in Brazil: A Decomposition Analysis (with Matías Mrejen and Tom Hone).
SSM – Population Health, v.10, 101266, December 2022 [link].

Primary Healthcare Protects Vulnerable Populations from Inequity in COVID-19 Vaccination: An Ecological Analysis of Nationwide Data from Brazil (with Bastos, Aguillar, Rache, Maçaira, Baião, Hamacher, Ranzani and Bozza).
The Lancet Regional Health Americas, v14, 100335, October 2022 [link].

The Economic Burden of Overweight and Obesity in Brazil: Perspectives for the Brazilian Unified Health System (with Ferrari, Giannichi, Resende, Paiva, Rache, Adami and Rezende).
Public Health, v.207, June 2022 [link].

The Quality of Alternative Models of Primary Health Care and Morbidity and Mortality in Brazil: A National Longitudinal Analysis (with Matias Mrejen, Chris Millet and Tom Hone).
The Lancet Regional Health Americas, v.4, 100034, December 2021 [link].

Financing Needs, Spending Projection and the Future of Health in Brazil (with Isabela Furtado and Paula Spinola).
Health Economics, v.30(5), pp. 1082-1094, May 2021 [link].
First version available as IEPS DP no.6. Featured in FSP, Exame and Valor.

Science Misuse and Polarised Political Narratives in the COVID-19 Response (with Tom Hone, Rômulo Paes-Souza, Maurício Barreto and Chris Millet).
The Lancet, v396(10263), P1635-1636, October 2020 [link].

Do Health and Social Protection Expenditures Protect Health During Economic Recession? A Longitudinal Analysis of Adult Mortality in 5565 Brazilian Municipalities (with Hone, Mirelman, Rasella, Paes-Souza, Barreto and Millet).
The Lancet Global Health, v.7 issue 11, pp. PE1575-E1583, November 2019 [link].
Featured in O Globo and Nexo Jornal.

Articles in Brazilian Journals, Books, Book Chapters and Selected Reports

Eletrificação Rural, Eletrodomésticos e Oferta de Trabalho Feminino: Evidência para o Brasil (with Laísa Rachter).
Revista Brasileira de Economia, v.76(1), janeiro-março 2022 [link].

A Saúde do Brasil (with F. Giambiagi and M. Lago). São Paulo: Editora Lux, 2022 [link].

A Saúde na Década de 2020: Navegar é Preciso. In: Giambiagi, F. (ed). O Futuro do Brasil. São Paulo: Editora Atlas, 2021 [link].

A Saúde na Constituição de 1988: 30 Anos de SUS e os Desafios pela Frente. In: Menezes-Filho, N. e A. Souza (eds). A Carta. São Paulo: Editora Todavia, 2019 [link].

Efeitos do FUNDEF/B sobre Frequência Escolar, Fluxo Escolar e Trabalho Infantil: Uma Análise com Base nos Censos de 2000 e 2010 (with Gabriela F. da Cruz).
Estudos Econômicos, v.48(1), pp. 39-75, janeiro/março de 2018 [link].

O Impacto das Unidades de Pronto-Atendimento (UPA 24hs) sobre Indicadores de Mortalidade: Evidências para o Rio de Janeiro (with Lucas Fernandes).
Pesquisa e Planejamento Econômico, v.46(3), dezembro de 2016 [link].

A Reação da Elite Política Incumbente na Abertura Democrática Brasileira (with Raphael Bruce).
Revista de Economia Política, v35, n.3(140), julho/setembro de 2015 [link].

The Brazilian Middle Class and Its Vulnerability to Economic Fluctuations (with Miguel Foguel). Poverty in Focus n.26. IPC-UNDP, 2013 [link].

The Agro-processing Sector: Empirical Overview, Recent Trends and Development Impacts (with John Wilkinson). In: C. Silva, D. Baker, W. Shepherd, S. Miranda-da-Cruz and C. Jenane (eds.) Agro-industries for Development. Oxford: CAB International, 2009.

Pobreza e Desigualdade de Renda no Brasil Rural: Uma Análise da Queda Recente (with Steven Helfand and H. Vinhais).
Pesquisa e Planejamento Econômico, v.39(1), abril de 2009 [link].

Posicionamento Social e a Hipótese da Distribuição de Renda Desconhecida no Brasil: Quão Pobres, Quão Ricos e Quão Desiguais nos Percebemos (with André Urani).
Revista de Economia Política, v.27 n.4(108), outubro/dezembro de 2007 [link].

Diagnóstico das Instituições de Microcrédito no Brasil (with Adriana Fontes and Manuel Thedim). São Paulo: Editora Peirópolis, 2006.

Agro-processing and Developing Countries (with John Wilkinson). Background paper for the World Development Report 2008. Also Available as Agroprocesamiento y Países en Desarrollo, Debates y Temas Rurales n.9, RIMISP, 2006.

Supermarkets and the Artisanal Fisheries Sector in Latin America: Case Studies from Brazil and Peru (with John Wilkinson and Patrícia Fuertes). FAO Globefish Research Programme, v.85. Rome: FAO, 2006.

Social Policy in Brazil: Recent Trends and Selected Items for an Agenda (with José Guilherme Reis). Background Paper for the OECD Economic Surveys: Brazil, v.2005(2). Rio de Janeiro: IETS, 2004.